Trading Day Recap - Friday, 4/25/25
Very bad trading for me on Friday even though my thesis was right.
One thing about our business it does not matter if your prediction about the market is right, it is also very important to get the timing of the entry right.
Of course it is virtually impossible to know what the correct entry is.
On Thursday evening GOOG 0.00%↑ reported earnings after the bell and it seems they beat on all metrics and the stock shot up considerably after hours.
The NQ followed suit but started selling off after midnight. When I got to my desk on Friday morning and looked at the charts and the econ data on tap my eyes were fixed on the Michigan Consumer Inflation expectations. The first two of these readings under the Trump administration had come in very high and both times the market sold off viciously.
Thus I waited until 10 a.m. to observe this data point. Surprisingly it came in line with expectations. I just knew we were going to lift off then.
The moment the market went passed the EMA after the data drop I went long the NQ it went in my favor for a little bit before the market turned and took me out.
Ok! Fine. It happens.
Then the market suddenly sold off quickly to the ONL - overnight low and I was a bit confused. Was there something I missed? I scoured twitter for breaking news and didn’t see anything.
Once it hovered around ONL and started climbing again I waited a little bit before the ES went past the EMA and again I went long.
Again, the NQ went in my favor a little bit before turning and took me out.
Both these Edges I took were not exactly my primary edge but more a hunch I had about the market because there wasn’t a clean rally.
Anyways, I threw in the towel after the R2 loss and packed it for the day.
Later when I checked the charts it had rallied to the close as I thought it would.
Of course!
One thing about our business it does not matter if your prediction about the market is right, it is also very important to get the timing of the entry right.
Trump’s words and actions are adding crazy volatility to the market, we must make a lot of money in these conditions going forward.
This was one of those almost un-winnable days. The fact it shot up and reversed not only once but twice early on in the session before trending, not much we can do there. That kind of action is not typical. Certainly frustrating but it is just one day.
This is one of those 1/10 or 2/10 times a setup like this does not work.